Thursday, March 26, 2009

Stimulus good. Carter bad.

Here are a couple new graphs:



Note that these graphs show the projections of where GDP and unemployment would've been had the stimulus package failed to pass.

In other words, according to these official projections from the CBO, the stimulus was a good thing. GDP and unemployment numbers are projected to be better than they otherwise would've been.*

And of course, John Carter voted against the stimulus, advocating instead that we do nothing. Need I say more?


* I realize, of course, that one could argue that on both charts both GDP and unemployment "become equal" to what they would've been, with or without the stimulus, in 2015 -- and therefore the stimulus is a waste because it results in increased deficits with no longterm payoff. My answer to this is twofold: (1) The interim years matter. It makes a big difference to American families, throughout the 2009-2012 years, to have GDP and unemployment at better numbers rather than worse ones. It might be true that the numbers will equalize by 2015 -- but the thousands of families who avoided unemployment, and the benefits to all Americans derived from improved GDP numbers, make the stimulus package a good idea. (2) These projections end at 2015 -- but the stimulus is designed to invest deeply in infrastructure, for increased longterm growth. Even if it's true that the numbers equalize in 2015, this does not mean that the stimulus was a "waste" -- because it is quite probable that productivity will be much higher, post-2015, than it would've been without those infrastructure investments provided by the stimulus. For example, we won't see the increased productivity resulting from investments in education for at least 10 years -- that is, until years after 2015. For at least these two reasons, the argument that the stimulus was a "waste" (just because the projections show "equalization" in 2015) is without merit.

1 comments:

  1. Who's to say that the "without stimulus" numbers are even accurate? Every month, the government declares that unemployment for the previous month was "better than expected" and then the month after that, they revise the number down after everyone's forgotten. These are the same people that drove the economy into the ground in the first place. Then they give BILLIONS to the banks, AND we're still in a recession even though it's been declared over. Who's benefited from this? Follow the money, and stop believing everything on CNN.

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